As I might have noted, on my 36th birthday, some four weeks ago, I feel on the ice at my place of work, breaking my right ankle.  This happened nearly three months into working out and improving my diet.  Naturally this new self-improvement regime had a cruise set as the reward for reaching my goals.

Thankfully after one month, I’ve actually lost a goodly amount of weight, the ankle is healing nicely, and my mind is turning towards rehabilitating and resuming life.   The cruise is now a prime motivator for me.  What ship, I haven’t decided, but I’ll figure that out later.

In any case, visions of boarding a big white ship, the sound of the PA tone, even that cruise ship smell give me a bit of a push when hobbling around on crutches gets old.

Ever since 9/11, it seems as if people are gun-shy about doing anything fun after a tragic event.  Where it is fine and appropriate to seek to respect people, or an area after something unfortunate happens, I can’t help but feel people are trying too hard to find fault in Royal Caribbean sending ships to their resort at Labadee.

There was little to no damage to the area where the resort is located.  The local people depend on the ships for their income.  Relief supplies are arriving from those ships, at one of the few entry points in the entire country.  If the ships didn’t stop there, they would simply go someplace else, or no-place at all.  Yet the ships would sail all the same.  People would revel in the joy of a cruise anyway.  The world would continues to move on.

Yet I read headlines over articles, such as “Is it ethical for cruise ships to return to Haiti yet?”  What kind of a flaming moron poses such a question?   Ethical?  I suppose letting people fall into unemployment, leaving the relief supplies in Miami, and stopping in the U.S. Virgin Islands, simply because weak minds can’t separate the issues in one part of Haiti from another, is the only “ethical” response to the disaster.  Yes, we must make everything worse, because we sop to some adolescent reaction to something fun being anyplace near a disaster.

Pathetic.

I do not know from where yet, but I fully expect to find articles like this grow as the same groups that attack the cruise industry hunt for ways to exploit what they think is a new entry point to make themselves heard.

Royal Caribbean’s response has been precisely what it should be.  Any person that can not assert the intelligence and maturity to see the situations in play for what they are, and acknowledge the appropriate nature of the response, has issues of their own to deal with.

I decided to shift the focus of my blog from mainly a hybrid of news and commentary, to what blogs are more generally about.  That is, light talk and banter about the topic, with news working into it as fits the situation.  In part, this is because I have changed how I use the front page of Royal Caribbean Fan.  I’ll be pouring news as it comes into me about the front page.  This will make the the main site more of an attraction.  I have already made some system upgrades to the picture galleries, added user blogs, and have other upgrades pending.

The streamlined process should let me get back to this blog more often with some luck.  If nothing else, you can also follow the news through Twitter! (RCIfan)

A whirl-wind tour of the news about Royal Caribbean International…..

• Steiner Leisure will continue to run the spas aboard Royal Caribbean International ships, including both of the Oasis class.

• Royal Caribbean International hopes to realize an 11% gain in fuel efficiency over the next five years.

• Royal Caribbean International is sending eight ships to Europe in 2010. They include three Voyager class including Voyager, Navigator, and Adventure of the Seas. Adventure, who has been sailing out of San Juan almost exclusively since her launch, will now pioneer cruising out of Malaga, Spain. Two Radiance class, the Jewel and Brilliance of the Seas are deploying, as are Splendor and Vision of their namesake Vision class. Independence of the Seas returns to represent the Freedom class.

• Royal Caribbean International is joining with Universal Orlando to offer the kind of Cruise-Land vacations previously best associated with Disney. They go a step further however, in providing options for more itinerary lengths. Where the Disney packages were for joint cruise-land trips of 3 to 5 days, Royal Caribbean International is moving forward with 7 night outings with Freedom of the Seas. It is described as being part of a “Way More than a Cruise” program. This I find curious, as I had thought we had seen the last of the older marketing tag-lines. All told however, it sounds like a wise enough move. Universal’s family or parks appeal to the post-Disney age range, yet retain some leverage in conjunction with using the existing Nickelodeon relationship.

• Employees of federal, state, or local law enforcement and fire departments across the U.S. will get a 20% discount on Royal Caribbean.

•  Booking for Allure of the Seas has begun!

That didn’t take long!

Ryan Wahlstrom’s website, www.CruiseMarketWatch.com, is providing statistical insight into the ebb and flow of the cruise industry unseen before. Ryan graduated from Iowa State University with a degree in Anthropology and International Studies, and earned a masters degree from Northern Arizona University in Applied Anthropology with a parallel focus on Business and Statistics. He cut his teeth on the cruise industry in 1995, when he founded Caribbean Carriage Company in Puerto Rico, providing drawn carriage rides to visiting passengers. Presently he is a Business Development Manager for the Miami Herald Media Company, taking charge of marketing efforts for products generating over seventy million per year.

Of late, Ryan has been tapping into the pulse of the cruise industry with a series of surveys, engaging over 250 travel agents in probing the health of the industry. You can review the results in detail at his website, www.CruiseMarketWatch.com.

1. Have we seen the peak of discounting for this business cycle?

I believe so, but I don’t look for a sharp, quick increase in prices either.  Two reasons.  One is that lines have sophisticated pricing models that tell them when to hit the brakes on discounting.  RCL stated in its earnings conference they have determined in certain cases they would rather leave a cabin empty than discount too much.  A number of luxury lines also stated at the Cruise Shipping Conference here in Miami price integrity is important to maintaining brand image.  The other issue is “shorter in” bookings trends.  So while cruises are sailing full, shorter in bookings by travelers have still left some cabin availability further out in the year (more than has been left in previous wave seasons).

2. Discounting aside, most ships remain full, does this position the cruise lines for a sharper rebound as the economy improves?

Absolutely, yes.  Cruise line’s value has allowed them to continue gaining market share from other vacation alternatives, and the more people exposed to the cruise experience, the more who will become repeat customers and evangelize the cruise experience to friends and family.  There are still also tremendous growth opportunities in all the overseas markets, where market penetration remains considerably lower than in the U.S.

3. Are prospective cruisers taking notice of the difference in ship design more now, than prior to the Voyager family of designs?

Certainly cruise lines have become more sophisticated marketers.  In addition, online social online media is expanding the distance and speed of communications compared to the 1999 Voyager launch.  So there is enhanced ability and skill in getting the word out to generate buzz around product.  And the product itself?  The Oasis of the Seas is a true jaw dropper, hard not to take notice!

4. Some Wall Street analysts were frothing at the mouth over Royal Caribbean International not canceling new building; do they sometimes miss the larger picture when pouring over more immediate numbers and results?

The analysts are looking at a number of factors besides demand, primarily oil prices and financial debt loads.  Paying down debt borrowed to finance new ships and buying the fuel to move them impact operating costs – actually limiting a lines ability to discount prices and impacting margins.  So that is basically Wall Street’s perspective, while the lines are saying  “Yes, but.. we need these builds to keep up with future growth and maintain or grow our share of the market.”

5. Does Royal Caribbean International’s move towards providing more perks and services to higher levels of cabins represent modern spin on old class based travel?

I think so, but I also believe it opens up the product to a broader market by providing something for everyone.  If I have limited budget, but love the cruise experience I can.  If I have a more generous budget, and would like to enjoy the amenities, I can.  More choices are good.

6. Much as the lines may be rivals, doesn’t a major event like the latest Voyager, Freedom, or now Oasis Class ship boost the entire industry?

Yes.  It opens up the market to new cruisers, it generates conversations around the ships, it builds more exposure for the whole industry.

7. After the discounting, such as we see now, and previously in 2001, abates, will the industry retain many of the less affluent guests cruising now?

Well yes.  Carnival has been unabashedly open about being “Wal-Mart of the Seas” and that strategy helped bring cruise to the masses to make the industry what it is today.  Each major line, Carnival, Royal Caribbean and NCL’s corporate parent Apollo own Luxury, Premium and Contemporary lines.  So the business model is to cater to all segments of the market to provide something for everyone.  Over the coarse of a cruisers vacation life-cycle, they will likely move up through various types of cruises.

8. Have the nearly ten years of ever larger and more revolutionary ships given Royal Caribbean International a marketing edge which previous was held by Carnival with its old theme song?

RCL seems to have an advantage with the “buzz” factor and great agent relations, but today it is really about looking for niches of travelers.  For example, some cruisers will always love the intimacy of a small ship and the exotic ports of call they can reach.  So I think it is about who has an edge within each group of prospective cruisers.

9. Will the projected near halt of new tonnage entering the market trigger upward pricing pressure in a couple of years?

That is a real possibility but still pretty far out.  When the economy fully recovers (likely 2011) the industry will still be absorbing the new capacity and by that time additional builds can be ordered.  I’m not 100% certain about this, but I think if you look at ticket prices 10 years ago or even 20 they probably have remained fairly stable if not lower, despite inflation.  So the industries “build it and they will come” strategy has been pretty good about keeping up with demand – and the industries larger size gives them buying power that allows them to keep the value low compared to land based vacation alternatives.

10. Do you think the Cuban demographic in the U.S. Retains enough clout to keep an opening of that island off the table during an Obama administration?

Probably, certainly during a first term.  But my experience in Miami is younger generations of Cuban’s are opening up to different ways of thinking about this issue from their parents.  My personal opinion is history has proven opening channels for business and communications and exposing people to different systems actually facilitates quicker change.

Visit Royal Caribbean Fan and discuss!