Ryan Wahlstrom’s website, www.CruiseMarketWatch.com, is providing statistical insight into the ebb and flow of the cruise industry unseen before. Ryan graduated from Iowa State University with a degree in Anthropology and International Studies, and earned a masters degree from Northern Arizona University in Applied Anthropology with a parallel focus on Business and Statistics. He cut his teeth on the cruise industry in 1995, when he founded Caribbean Carriage Company in Puerto Rico, providing drawn carriage rides to visiting passengers. Presently he is a Business Development Manager for the Miami Herald Media Company, taking charge of marketing efforts for products generating over seventy million per year.

Of late, Ryan has been tapping into the pulse of the cruise industry with a series of surveys, engaging over 250 travel agents in probing the health of the industry. You can review the results in detail at his website, www.CruiseMarketWatch.com.

1. Have we seen the peak of discounting for this business cycle?

I believe so, but I don’t look for a sharp, quick increase in prices either.  Two reasons.  One is that lines have sophisticated pricing models that tell them when to hit the brakes on discounting.  RCL stated in its earnings conference they have determined in certain cases they would rather leave a cabin empty than discount too much.  A number of luxury lines also stated at the Cruise Shipping Conference here in Miami price integrity is important to maintaining brand image.  The other issue is “shorter in” bookings trends.  So while cruises are sailing full, shorter in bookings by travelers have still left some cabin availability further out in the year (more than has been left in previous wave seasons).

2. Discounting aside, most ships remain full, does this position the cruise lines for a sharper rebound as the economy improves?

Absolutely, yes.  Cruise line’s value has allowed them to continue gaining market share from other vacation alternatives, and the more people exposed to the cruise experience, the more who will become repeat customers and evangelize the cruise experience to friends and family.  There are still also tremendous growth opportunities in all the overseas markets, where market penetration remains considerably lower than in the U.S.

3. Are prospective cruisers taking notice of the difference in ship design more now, than prior to the Voyager family of designs?

Certainly cruise lines have become more sophisticated marketers.  In addition, online social online media is expanding the distance and speed of communications compared to the 1999 Voyager launch.  So there is enhanced ability and skill in getting the word out to generate buzz around product.  And the product itself?  The Oasis of the Seas is a true jaw dropper, hard not to take notice!

4. Some Wall Street analysts were frothing at the mouth over Royal Caribbean International not canceling new building; do they sometimes miss the larger picture when pouring over more immediate numbers and results?

The analysts are looking at a number of factors besides demand, primarily oil prices and financial debt loads.  Paying down debt borrowed to finance new ships and buying the fuel to move them impact operating costs – actually limiting a lines ability to discount prices and impacting margins.  So that is basically Wall Street’s perspective, while the lines are saying  “Yes, but.. we need these builds to keep up with future growth and maintain or grow our share of the market.”

5. Does Royal Caribbean International’s move towards providing more perks and services to higher levels of cabins represent modern spin on old class based travel?

I think so, but I also believe it opens up the product to a broader market by providing something for everyone.  If I have limited budget, but love the cruise experience I can.  If I have a more generous budget, and would like to enjoy the amenities, I can.  More choices are good.

6. Much as the lines may be rivals, doesn’t a major event like the latest Voyager, Freedom, or now Oasis Class ship boost the entire industry?

Yes.  It opens up the market to new cruisers, it generates conversations around the ships, it builds more exposure for the whole industry.

7. After the discounting, such as we see now, and previously in 2001, abates, will the industry retain many of the less affluent guests cruising now?

Well yes.  Carnival has been unabashedly open about being “Wal-Mart of the Seas” and that strategy helped bring cruise to the masses to make the industry what it is today.  Each major line, Carnival, Royal Caribbean and NCL’s corporate parent Apollo own Luxury, Premium and Contemporary lines.  So the business model is to cater to all segments of the market to provide something for everyone.  Over the coarse of a cruisers vacation life-cycle, they will likely move up through various types of cruises.

8. Have the nearly ten years of ever larger and more revolutionary ships given Royal Caribbean International a marketing edge which previous was held by Carnival with its old theme song?

RCL seems to have an advantage with the “buzz” factor and great agent relations, but today it is really about looking for niches of travelers.  For example, some cruisers will always love the intimacy of a small ship and the exotic ports of call they can reach.  So I think it is about who has an edge within each group of prospective cruisers.

9. Will the projected near halt of new tonnage entering the market trigger upward pricing pressure in a couple of years?

That is a real possibility but still pretty far out.  When the economy fully recovers (likely 2011) the industry will still be absorbing the new capacity and by that time additional builds can be ordered.  I’m not 100% certain about this, but I think if you look at ticket prices 10 years ago or even 20 they probably have remained fairly stable if not lower, despite inflation.  So the industries “build it and they will come” strategy has been pretty good about keeping up with demand – and the industries larger size gives them buying power that allows them to keep the value low compared to land based vacation alternatives.

10. Do you think the Cuban demographic in the U.S. Retains enough clout to keep an opening of that island off the table during an Obama administration?

Probably, certainly during a first term.  But my experience in Miami is younger generations of Cuban’s are opening up to different ways of thinking about this issue from their parents.  My personal opinion is history has proven opening channels for business and communications and exposing people to different systems actually facilitates quicker change.

Visit Royal Caribbean Fan and discuss!

Welcome to the third edition of Ten Questions with Royal Caribbean Fan.  This edition features Kirk Detweiler, which many of you have seen aboard ships through-out the Royal Caribbean International fleet!

An Ohio native, Kirk graduated from Kent State with a degree in telecommunications and minors in theater and dance.  A veteran of two summers at “Cedar Point.” It was at the historic amusement park he was recommended for a job with a company casting for cruise ships and dinner theaters.  He first entertained aboard the late SS Independence of American-Hawaii Cruises.  He became one of the youngest cruise directors when first landing the position with Royal Caribbean at age 27 and has been at it over 20 years now.  He’s released two self-titled albums, Some Random White Boy, and Shades of Wrong.

1. How much entertainment do you have to book yourself, as opposed to that which Royal Caribbean books for the sailings? In the literal sense, the CD’s do not physically book the acts. The entertainment dept in Miami does the actual booking, headed by a lady by the name of Jackie Grace, who works mainly through talent agents.  The CD’s do have an opportunity to request specific acts depending on ship, itinerary, etc. plus we can book new acts, depending on guest reaction etc.

2. How many acts aboard ship are people you know personally?  Well after I work with them, I know them all!  But it is about 50-50. I am always coming across performers I have known for 20+ years and it is like old home week!

3. Describe the hardest performer to you’ve had to deal with onboard ship.  I’ve been lucky but I have heard some horror stories. Without naming names, I did hear about the time we booked a major star (I won’t name names but he runs a yearly telethon!) who insisted on having a treadmill in his suite, and was very particular and demanding about his diet and wanted a blender in his cabin–things like that.  I have never really had an awful experience and have some great memories of working with the likes of Ben Vereen, Charo, Jerry Van Dyke, Vic Damone, Bobby Rydell, Jim Nabors, to name drop a few!

4. How much sleep do you get on an average night?  5-6 hours is average, but at my age, I HAVE to have a power nap in the afternoon! And I keep the company who makes Red Bull in business!

5. Does working on a ship with the number of options as the Voyager and Freedom classes present unique challenges to cruise directors, or actually make their work easier?  As cliche as it sounds, the bigger the ship, the bigger the job. On the bigger ships, you have more people working for you and the behind the scene stuff involves more, i.e, HR issues, schedules, evaluations, etc.  I do at least one thorough walk around every day so the bigger the ship, the more territory to cover, etc.  I became CD in 1989 on a ship that held 700 guests and the job has grown exponentially since then. Back then , I only planned and hosted the entertainment and events, maybe attended one meeting a week and now, the behind the scenes is 75% of the job, so getting “face time” with guests is getting more and more challenging. One thing the bigger ships help you with, however, is the WOW factor. The guests are so bowled over by the hardware, that it takes them a couple of days to come off their “high” about their first impression, so in that sense, the new big ships in some ways make our jobs easier.

6. With Oasis of the Seas as you serve on other ships, do you avoid mentioning what will be “the story” in the industry for the next year? The Oasis IS the story for this year, and to tell you the truth, after the Allure (the second Oasis), I don’t think anyone knows what the next big story is. And if they do, they’re not telling.  Right now, the industry is finding ways to survive the recession, so that is the other big story this year.

7. With the early mornings and late nights, when does a cruise director find time for themselves? On our vacations!  We work 4 months on and two months off, and the off-time is limited to vacations these days, although I do force myself to the gym a few times a week and once or twice a week I will force myself off the ship to have lunch in a port-of-call to keep my sanity. But even when we are on vacation, it takes awhile to realize we don’t have to say hello to everyone at the mall! (I have gotten many weird looks over the years!)

8. Do you think that tough economic times drive people to push to enjoy themselves more than in care-free times?  I have found in my day, that some people can have fun in a paper bag and other people, you could perform a human sacrifice on the Royal Promenade and they still aren’t happy. I think with the recession, people are a bit more frugal with their onboard spending, but I haven’t really detected a change in how much "fun" they’re having.  The cruise price has bottomed out which changes our demographic a bit, and puts more pressure on us onboard to make up the difference in revenue. Our ships are still full so that tells us that people’s vacations are still very important to them and the fact that we are sailing full is a testimony to our company, that people will choose a "Royal Caribbean International cruise vacation" over other vacations. (Royal Caribbean trivia: we, as employees, are not allowed to use the word "cruise," it is always a "cruise vacation"! And we are not Royal Caribbean, we are Royal Caribbean INTERNATIONAL! You are not passengers, you are guests, you don’t live in a cabin, you live in a stateroom. Oh, I could go on!)

9. How quick or easy is it to gauge the “personality/mood” of a new ship full of passengers, and do you ever adjust your plans during a week based on it?  The staff working the gangway will tell me right off what the crowd is like based on their “aura” when they arrive. I can usually tell how good the crowd is going to be at the Welcome Aboard Show.  And YES, we print our Cruise Compasses one day in advance, and this gives us flexibility to change day to day based on our guests.  We also get a breakdown a couple weeks before each cruise based on nationality which will also affect our programming.

10. How much input from passengers goes into planning your weeks? Historically, the “guest satisfaction surveys” are very important to us and if you really look at it, our new ships are designed with guest feedback playing a big part. Week to week, a CD will make changes and decisions based on past feedback, but we also try to surprise people with something new, something unexpected.

Welcome to the second edition of “Ten Questions with Royal Caribbean Fan,” this week, featuring Behram Tavadia!

Known to all as Bob, Behram Tavadia has served with Royal Caribbean International since 1986, truly working his way up the corporate ladder both Shipboard and Shoreside. Today as Director, International Trade Support and Charter Sales Bob and his team support over 47 International Representatives around the globe.

Bob began his 22 year sea trek as a Purser officer, and was promoted through Chief Purser, Food and Beverage Manager, and Hotel Director. He earned a name for himself as Hotel Director, having been responsible for the start-up  operations aboard 4 Voyager class and 3 Radiance class ships.

Indeed, it was on the 11^th voyage of Explorer of the Seas that I had the chance to meet Bob. Later Bob was promoted to Director of Hotel Operations for several years, before being named Director of International Sales Asia Pacific.

1. What is the hardest part of starting up a new ship?

The hardest part of starting a new ship is the unknown. You plan as best as possible for every single situation and then take it one day at a time. During the start up of the Explorer of the Seas we had people on the team that were new to one another. Getting this team to not only bring out the Explorer successfully but six other newbuilds subsequently, were some of the proudest moments of my life. I truly feel if the team is ” One ” there is no hardship one cannot overcome.        

2. How often do you get a chance to cruise yourself?

My wife and myself take at least one cruise every year - We love it because once you are onboard you do not have to make any major decisions. You do whatever and whenever you fancy. Relaxing by the pool side during the day as the ship sails thru open waters and later enjoying everything we have to offer onboard. We never get tired of cruising.    

3 . Does recruiting a crew differ much if the ship is operating in the European market vs. the Caribbean?

On any ship in the fleet we have crew representation from over 50 to 60 countries. In Europe we do get a much more diverse International guest mix. Having ships out of home ports such as Venice, Barcelona, Southampton for example attracts a lot of the regional clientele along with guests from North America. No matter what ship the crew work it helps to be multilingual & knowledgeable in the diverse culture, behaviors and habits of our guests. As we continue to deploy ships around the globe providing an International product we have adapted well to our needs.  

4-Did you ever believe you would see vessels the size of the Oasis of the Seas?

Nope when I first joined the company the “Song of America” and our three sister ships “Song of Norway”, “Nordic Prince”, and “Sun Viking” seemed big. I was floored first when I had heard of the Voyager and now the Oasis “WOW” is all I can say.

5- What was the most unusual request a passenger made of you, while serving as a purser?

Unusual many more but one that stood out and was funny in a way - Asking me a send a thank you note to Captain “Speaking” - Based on his 12 noon introduction speech during the first few days of sailing. In this case what stuck in the guest mind was the Captain starting his introduction by saying “Good Afternoon this is your Captain speaking……

6- Does the Asian region have a higher demand for charters than is seen in the North American market?

As relates to charter business in North America the market is much more matured then in Asia. In Asia we do have great partnerships with  companies that Charter our vessels 2 to 4 times a year. We hope that other companies will see the opportunity that Charters present, bringing  company employees & families together providing them a fantastic vacation and a great place to conduct their company business. Large incentive business is another opportunity that has not reached its full potential in the Asian markets. Another great opportunity is for companies that do large scale music productions and other types of entertainment to charter the ship and then sell space to their audience and make it a type of theme cruise.

7- How do you think the new ad campaign “The Nation of Why Not” will translate to the Asian markets?

Our new ad campaign “The Nation of Why Not” was tested thru consumer survey in select Asian markets and the response was very positive. Of course with various language interpretations we have to tweak some things and working with our International advertising partners makes its a lot easier to role this campaign out globally.

8- How have accommodations for crew members improved over the last 25 years?

Crew accommodations including recreational and dining areas like our ships have changed in shape, size, design, configuration, amenities. From the early Sun Viking days to the Freedom class ships of today there are more options for our crew just like the guests. Its really important to provide the crew with good facilities and living accommodations.

9- How big an impact does a good ships captain make on the morale and performance of a crew?

The Captain plays a very critical role in the overall morale of the crew and the onboard atmosphere. A good captain is not just a leader but a mentor, guide, friend and the crew respect that. We are very proud of all of our Captains in the fleet.

10-Do you think Royal Caribbean brings a more refined product to the Asian markets, compared to the smaller, regionally based lines that dominate the area now?

Royal Caribbean has brought to Asia what cruising is all about. An international product, with rationalization. It allows our guests to experience more then just going onboard and gambling. The small local products have limited options when it comes to facilities, culinary and beverage offerings, entertainment and our explorations programs, old hardware compared to our ships. We have been welcomed into Asia with open arms bringing into this market a product that is “refreshing” and gives a true cruise experience to the guests.  

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Royal Caribbean will introduce cutting edge waste water treatment systems to 16 ships.  The Poseidon system, produced by Navalis Environmental Systems will greatly exceed the requirements in ports the Royal Caribbean fleet visits.  It will also mark a strong upgrade to the older ships in the fleet, since comparable systems already are in place among the Radiance and Voyager family.

Also in the news, Adventure of the Seas will be homeported in Malaga, Spain, during the 2010 season.

Coming tomorrow, the second edition of “Ten Questions with Royal Caribbean Fan” featuring Behram “Bob” Tavadia, Director, International Trade Support and Charter Sales!

Meanwhile, today’s Royal Caribbean International (RCL) stock result.

Welcome to new readers, and welcome back to regulars to Royal Caribbean Fan.  Today I’m pleased to bring you the first regular feature on our site.  “Ten Questions with Royal Caribbean Fan” will pose questions, ten of them, to various figures in the world of Royal Caribbean International.

This edition, I had a chance to pose Ten Questions to Rachel Hancock!

Rachel Hancock has served as the manager of Loyalty Marketing at Royal Caribbean International for over a year now. I had the pleasure of meeting her during a pre-inaugural cruise aboard the Liberty of the Seas not long after she assumed the position. An undergraduate of UCLA and MBA graduate of University of Colorado, she runs the Crown and Anchor Society as well as shipboard loyalty events. In addition to that already formidable responsibility, Rachel also manages communications through electronic media, direct mail, web, and print channels as well as direct strategy for the co-branded credit card program.

1.        What is your favorite place on a Royal Caribbean ship after nightfall?

I enjoy all of the shows in the theater - I think we have the best cruise ship entertainment in the industry.  I have seen some of our production shows many times, and I never tire of them.  

2.        How much of the ships do you get to see, which the average passenger does not?

When I am working onboard, I am able to go the crew areas and I have done several bridge tours.  The place I really want to visit that I never have is the engine room, because that is strictly off limits to everyone except those working there.

3.        White chocolate or dark chocolate dipped strawberries?

I am a big fan of dark chocolate and I am always excited to have any kind of strawberries delivered to my stateroom onboard.

4.        What is new with the young Crown and Anchor Society program?

Just last December we reached our 5 millionth member!  We are so proud to have so many loyalty guests to Royal Caribbean!

5.        You don’t actually get to play Bingo on board, do you?

Only when I’m on vacation and so far I’ve never won.

6.        How many cruises have you taken now?

I am actually up to 31 cruises now including ones I’ve taken for work and vacation.  That just barely makes me a Diamond Plus member!

7.        Breakfast in Windjammer, Main dinning, or room service?

I nearly always go to the Windjammer in the interests of time.  I love the omlettes at Egg Harbor!

8.        What is new and exciting with Crown and Anchor during the coming year?

We are doing our first member cruise to Asia which also includes a cruise tour!  We are all very excited for this adventure.  Our member cruise in November out of Bayonne, NJ to the Eastern Caribbean is the first member cruise from that port. But obviously the most important event of the year is the debut of Oasis of the Seas in December 2009!

9.        What do you enjoy the most about your job?

What I enjoy the most is the time spend on the ships with the Crown & Anchor members, the officers and the staff onboard.  I love traveling to new and exciting destinations, and meeting as many members as I can on each cruise.

10.        If you had to pick a new signature feature for a Royal Caribbean ship, what would it be?  

I think it would be the open-air aqua theater on the back of Oasis of the Seas.  It is a one-of-a-kind innovation that you won’t find on any other cruise ship.

Coming next week,  Behram “Bob” Tavadia, Director, International Trade Support and Charter Sales!

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